Learn why a potentially quieter hurricane season can still bring major property risk – and discover the advantages of working with a trusted expert broker at Lloyd’s.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season may be forecast to be quieter than average, but that does not mean property owners, insurers, brokers and other insurance market participants can afford to relax. Seasonal forecasts measure overall hurricane activity – they cannot tell you whether one major storm will make landfall in a heavily exposed area. For North American and Caribbean property portfolios, the priority remains understanding your exposures, securing appropriate coverage and capacity, and preparing well before a storm is approaching. Working with an experienced Lloyd’s broker such as Costero Brokers can help you navigate the changing market and build protection around the risks you actually face.
Why hurricane season matters to the property insurance market
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from 1 June to 30 November. Every year, it creates significant uncertainty for property owners and the global insurance and reinsurance markets, particularly across the Caribbean, Florida, the Gulf Coast and the eastern United States.
The impact of a major hurricane can extend far beyond physical damage from extreme winds. Storm surge, flooding and interruption to power, transport and communications can create substantial knock-on losses, while businesses may face extended closures and disruption to operations, customers and supply chains.
For insurers and reinsurers, major hurricanes can also affect catastrophe capacity, underwriting appetite and pricing. A significant landfall in a highly insured region can change market sentiment rapidly – making the difference between a relatively benign year for the insurance industry and one defined by major catastrophe losses.
Recent hurricanes show the scale of potential losses
Recent years provide a reminder of how quickly hurricane losses can accumulate. Natural catastrophes caused an estimated USD $140 billion of insured losses globally in 2024, with Hurricanes Helene and Milton among the year’s costliest disasters. (Source: Reuters)
The Caribbean was then hit by Hurricane Melissa in 2025. The Category 5 hurricane made a devastating landfall in Jamaica, with estimated insured losses of between USD $2.2 billion and $4.2 billion. (Source: Reuters)
What does the 2026 hurricane forecast tell us?
In its May outlook, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) gives the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season a 55% probability of being below normal, compared with a 35% probability of a near-normal season and just a 10% probability of an above-normal season.
NOAA forecasts between 8 and 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes and 1 to 3 could become major hurricanes. By comparison, an average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. (Source: NOAA)
A key factor in the quieter forecast is El Niño – the warm phase of a recurring climate pattern involving unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which can influence weather patterns worldwide. NOAA confirmed El Niño had developed in June and was expected to strengthen. El Niño typically increases upper-level winds and vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic, which can disrupt and suppress hurricane development. (Source: NOAA)
The outlook has become quieter still as the season has progressed. A separate July update from Colorado State University (CSU) reduced its own forecast to nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, as confidence increased in a strengthening El Niño. (Source: Houston Chronicle)
But seasonal forecasts need to be put in context. NOAA specifically stresses that its outlook only predicts overall seasonal activity. As NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham emphasises, it only takes one storm to make for a very bad season. (Source: NOAA)
How to protect property portfolios this hurricane season
Whether you are a broker, insurer or risk manager, hurricane season is a good time to look beyond the headline forecast and review how individual exposures could perform if the wrong storm takes the wrong track.
Important priorities include:
- Review your exposure data and valuations. Make sure property values, replacement costs, business interruption exposures and statements of values are accurate and current.
- Understand geographical concentrations. Consider where accumulations exist across Florida, Gulf Coast states, the Carolinas and the Caribbean, and how a single event could affect multiple insured locations.
- Check limits, deductibles and coverage. Review whether limits remain adequate and understand how named-storm or windstorm deductibles, flood and storm-surge exclusions or sublimits, and any separate flood cover could respond.
- Consider your programme structure. If your portfolio and exposures have evolved, is there a need for new excess layers, quota-share participants or parametric protections?
- Prepare for claims before they happen. Clear documentation, business continuity planning and established communications can make an important difference when properties are damaged and rapid decisions are required.
- Avoid leaving placement decisions until a storm is approaching. Once hurricane season is under way – and particularly as peak months approach – appetite can change quickly. Starting conversations early gives your broker more time to explore markets, negotiate capacity and consider alternative structures.
The key is not to react to a quieter seasonal forecast by assuming you need less protection. Instead, use the opportunity to test whether your insurance programme still reflects your actual exposures and risk tolerance.
Why Lloyd’s remains a natural market for hurricane-exposed property
North American and Caribbean catastrophe risks often require significant capacity, specialist underwriting and flexible programme structures. That makes Lloyd’s and the wider London insurance market particularly relevant.
Lloyd’s brings together specialist syndicates with different risk appetites and underwriting expertise. Its broker-led market enables risks to be discussed directly with underwriters and, where appropriate, capacity to be assembled across multiple syndicates or underwriters, rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all solution. (Source: Lloyd’s)
Lloyd’s also plays a significant role in the US excess and surplus lines market, which has become increasingly important for catastrophe-exposed properties where conventional admitted-market capacity may be restricted. Reuters reported that Lloyd’s held the largest share of the overall US E&S market in 2023, while property business from catastrophe-prone states has been an important driver of growth. (Source: Reuters)
But access to Lloyd’s is only part of the answer. The challenge is knowing which markets to approach, how to present the risk and how to structure a placement that balances coverage, price, capacity and long-term reliability.
Getting more from Lloyd’s than access to capacity
In an uncertain hurricane season, you need a broker who will engage with the detail of your risk and help you make informed decisions – not simply feed information into a platform and wait for a response.
A trusted Lloyd’s broker can help you understand changing market appetite, identify suitable underwriters, communicate the strengths of your portfolio and explore alternative options when straightforward capacity is unavailable. That human judgement becomes particularly valuable when market conditions change quickly following a major catastrophe.
Costero Brokers specialises in property insurance with a particular focus on North American and Caribbean risks. We work with retailers, wholesalers and risk managers to access markets in London, Europe and other global insurance hubs, placing risks through the open market and bespoke facilities while maintaining regular communication throughout the process.
Be prepared for the hurricane season
A quieter hurricane forecast may be welcome news. But when one storm can still transform an entire season, preparation and informed insurance decisions remain essential.
To learn more about protecting your property portfolio and discuss your insurance challenges, get in touch with Costero Brokers and speak to Alex Bottomley, head of our property insurance team.
